Weather forecast evaluation is very important since the forecasts can affect the lives and properties of thousands of people. The degree of their accuracy needs to be known for the forecasts to be credible. This forecast evaluation emphazizes on the accuracy of rainfall predictions, since quantitative precipitation forecast is known to be difficult. That is why other weather forecasts (e.g. CNN) only predict a chance of rain or no rain, and do not give out any rainfall amount like our MM5 forecasts.Below are the results of the comparisons of the MM5 forecasts from VNBAOLUT.COM against the weather information from recent storms reported in the news media, both in Vietnam and overseas.
- Storm No. 9 (Kajiki) came near the Central coast on December 10, 2001. Heavy rains occurred from Da Nang to Binh Dinh with measured rainfall amounts 100-200 mm. Up to December 10, total rainfall reached in Hue 207 mm, Tien Phuoc-Quang Nam 232 mm and Chau O-Quang Ngai 213 mm. The MM5 forecast for 0700 VN time December 9 predicted heavy rains during the next two days (December 9 and 10) at Hue (234 mm), Da Nang (284 mm), Hoi An (258 mm), Tam Ky (235 mm), Quang Ngai (212 mm) and Tam Quan (191 mm).
- Storm No. 8 (LingLing) made landfall in Phu Yen during the morning of November 12, 2001, killing 23 people. Heavy winds and rains occurred from Phu Yen to Quang Ngai with measured rainfall amounts 100-200 mm. The MM5 forecast for 1300 VN time November 11 predicted heavy rains during the November 11 night and November 12 morning at Song Cau (177 mm), Tuy Hoa (134 mm), Qui Nhon (164 mm), Tam Quan (181 mm) and Quang Ngai (207 mm).
- According to the weather bulletin dated October 23, 2001, there were heavy rains in Nghe An and Ha Tinh Provinces during October 22-23. A total rainfall amount of 203 mm has been measured at Vinh during the morning of October 23. The MM5 forecast for 0700 VN time Monday October 22 predicted a rainfall amount of 225 mm at Vinh (119 mm during Monday night October 22 and 106 mm duringTuesday morning October 23).
- The weather report dated October 22, 2001 reported that several provinces in Central Vietnam, from Quang Tri to Khanh Hoa, have experienced heavy rains over the last two days due to tropical depressions. Total rainfall amounts over October 20 and 21 reached in Hue City (88 mm in Kim Long, 113 mm in Binh Dien), 287 mm in Danang, 300 mm in Tam Ky and 351 mm in Quang Ngai. The MM5 forecast for 0700 VN time Saturday October 20 predicted heavy rains over the next two days at Hue (120 mm), Danang (205mm), Tam Ky (305 mm) and Quang Ngai (187 mm). For Sunday October 21, rainfall amounts in Binh Dinh Province reached up to 269 mm in An Lao, 227 mm in Bong Son and 178 mm in Phu My. The MM5 forecast for 0700 VN time Sunday October 21 predicted a rainfall amount of 266 mm in Tam Quan near An Lao for the same day.
- The article "Emergency Flood on the Mekong" (Newspaper SGGP dated August 24, 2001) reported a total rainfall amount of 115 mm during two days August 21 and 22 in HCM City (73,8 mm on 21/8 and 41,5 mm on 22/8). The MM5 forecast for 0100 VN time August 21 predicted a total of 137 mm for both days (thunderstorm with 129 mm during August 21 night and light rain 8mm during August 22).
- The news articles "Thousands Homeless, One Dead as Typhoon Lashes Vietnam " (AFP dated August 11, 2001) and "Storm No. 5 Caused Heavy Rains in Northern and North Central Provinces" (Newspaper SGGP dated August 12, 2001) reported Tropical Storm Usagi has caused heavy rains in the northern provinces of Central Vietnam. Total rainfall amounts up to Friday night (August 10) have reached 256 mm in Quang Binh Province (Mai Hoa 256mm, Tuyen Hoa 194mm) and 188 mm in Ha Tinh Province (Hoa Duyet 188mm, Ky Anh 178mm). Rainfall in Hoa Binh and Tinh Gia (Thanh Hoa) have been measured at 102mm and 82 mm, respectively The MM5 forecast for 1900 VN time Thursday August 9 predicted heavy rains for both Thursday and Friday, with total rainfall amounts of 203 mm in Ha Tinh, 160 mm in Dong Hoi, 71 mm in Hoa Binh and 99 mm in Thanh Hoa.
- The bulletin "Northern Vietnam Worst Floods for Years Kill 33 " from Reuters dated July 6, 2001 reported that six Northern provinces have been flooded by torrential rains from Tropical Storm Durian. In Thai Nguyen Province, located 80 km north of Hanoi, 23 people lost their lives and more than 5000 houses have been destroyed or damaged. The MM5 forecast for 1900 VN time Tuesday July 3rd predicted a heavy thunderstorm in Thai Nguyen during the night of July 3rd with a 118 mm rainfall.
- The article "Weather Getting Worse " (Newspaper SGGP dated July 4th, 2001) reported a big thunderstorm during Tuesday night July 3rd in Ha Noäi with a 84 mm rainfall. The MM5 forecast for 1900 VN time Tuesday July 3rd predicted a thunderstorm in Hanoi during the night with 73 mm in rainwater.
- A bulletin from Reuters dated July 3rd, 2001 ("Weakened Typhoon Durian Brings Rain to Vietnam ")announcedthat heavy rain would occur during Tuesday July 3rd at locations near the border such as Mong Cay and Cam Pha in Quang Ninh Province and in coastal areas such as Hai Phong when Tropical Storm Durian approached the Chinese-Vietnamese border. This news bulletin was compared against the MM5 forecast for 1900 VN time Monday July 2nd. Results of this comparison show that the MM5 forecast was in close agreement with the Reuters bulletin, such as Mong Cay (heavy thunderstorms with 90 mm of rainwater during Tuesday and 75 mm during Tuesday night), Cam Pha (heavy thunderstorms with 27 mm during Tuesday and 37 mm during Tuesday night), Cao Bang (rain with 4 mm on Tuesday and 46 mm during Tuesday night) and Lang Son (rain with 4 mm on Tuesday and 26 mm during Tuesday night). Cam Pha and Mong Cay in Quang Ninh Province had heavier rains since they are located closer to the ocean than Cao Bang and Lang Son. MM5 also predicted heavy rains in Hai Phong (18 mm on Tuesday and a thunderstorm with 70 mm during Tuesday night).
NOTE: Recent MM5 forecasts can be accessed from
where yyyy=year (e.g. 2001), mm=month (e.g. 08), dd=day (e.g. 09), hh=GMT hour (00,06,12,18)
Last modified: October 25, 2001